GLOBAL – UNITED KINGDOM, JULY 1, 2013 – The latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc, the marketing intelligence service, indicates that global advertising expenditure will increase by 3.4% in 2013, a downgrade of -0.6pp from the previous forecast in January 2013. Adspend is expected to pick up next year with growth of 5.4%.
Warc’s Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.
Of the 13 markets covered in the report, nine are forecast to register growth in adspend in 2013. With the exception of Australia and Japan, predictions for all countries have been cut since January.
The strongest performers will be Russia and China, which are expected to see all-media growth of 12.1% and 9.7% respectively, and are forecast to maintain strong growth through 2014.
Spain and Italy are set to be the worst performers this year, with predicted declines in advertising spend of -9.5% and -8.1% respectively. The outlook for both countries has deteriorated significantly in the last six months, with forecasts down by around 7pp. France (-2.0%) and Germany (-0.1%) are also expected to see drops in spend this year.
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All media, bar newspapers and magazines, are predicted to record year-on-year growth in 2013, with internet up most on 13.9%. Internet and out of home are the only channels for which forecasts have been upgraded from January. Estimates for all other channels have fallen.
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