LONDON, UK – The latest Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report shows UK adspend is predicted to fall 15.6% year-on-year in 2020 to £21.4bn, which is a slight improvement on the drop of 16.7% forecast in April. The data demonstrate the deep impact that COVID-19 continues to have on advertising and the wider UK economy. New figures for Q1 2020 show total adspend rose 2.9% year-on-year to reach £6.4bn, just as the COVID-19 crisis was beginning to take hold. This contrasts with the 39.0% decline estimated for Q2.
Keith Weed, President, Advertising Association commented:
Philippa Brown, Chair, Advertising Association & CEO, PHD commented:
Stephen Woodford, Chief Executive, Advertising Association commented:
James McDonald, Head of Data Content, WARC commented:
“First quarter metrics were softer than had been anticipated going into lockdown, but we believe the second quarter will represent the nadir. With unemployment expected to remain well above pre-pandemic levels into next year, and the possibility of a second virus wave during the winter, no growth in total adspend is forecast until Q2 2021.
“Our cautious optimism that investment will rebound from April 2021 is rooted, in part, in a belief that a ‘new normal’ will then have been established, borne by a successful vaccination programme. Under these circumstances, we feel the UK’s ad industry can attain a full recovery during 2021 as a whole, though total market value will still be down on 2019’s peak.”
We have released the latest AA/@WARCEditors adspend figures for Q1 2020.
UK adspend is expected to decline by 15.6% this year followed by a 16.6% increase next year. Read more over on our website here: https://t.co/82gLqKmCaI pic.twitter.com/7afIMJH4fJ
— Ad Association (@ad_association) August 3, 2020
Media | Q1 2020 year-on-year % change | 2020 forecast year-on-year % change | Percentage point (pp) change in 2020 forecast vs April | 2021 forecast year-on-year % change |
Search | 10.1% | -12.3% | -0.2pp | 19.4% |
Online display* | 11.8% | -7.9% | +4.8pp | 15.7% |
TV | -1.7% | -14.5% | +5.3pp | 13.2% |
of which VOD | 11.3% | -1.2% | +5.1pp | 21.1% |
Online classified* | -5.0% | -26.8% | -2.5pp | 10.6% |
Direct mail | -18.0% | -26.2% | -5.0pp | 3.5% |
Out of home | -3.1% | -25.4% | -6.7pp | 34.7% |
of which digital | 5.2% | -20.9% | -6.2pp | 38.7% |
National newsbrands | -6.3% | -21.2% | -0.7pp | 12.5% |
of which online | 14.2% | -11.4% | +3.1pp | 17.0% |
Regional newsbrands | -15.5% | -27.5% | -3.4pp | 12.6% |
of which online | 0.9% | -21.0% | -2.2pp | 19.7% |
Magazine brands | -11.9% | -24.2% | +0.8pp | 15.4% |
of which online | -18.7% | -23.3% | -1.5pp | 21.1% |
Radio | -5.2% | -21.0% | = | 16.9% |
of which online | -7.1% | -18.4% | -7.5pp | 23.1% |
Cinema | -10.4% | -44.2% | -10.6pp | 79.6% |
TOTAL UK ADSPEND | 2.9% | -15.6% | +1.1pp | 16.6% |
Note: Broadcaster VOD, digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio station websites are also included within online display and classified totals, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Online radio is display advertising on broadcasters’ websites. Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, July 2020 |
Forecast year-on-year % change | Q2 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2020 | Q1 2021 | 2020 | 2021 |
Search | -31.5% | -21.0% | -8.2% | -3.8% | -12.3% | 19.4% |
Online display* | -27.1% | -14.4% | -2.1% | 1.2% | -7.9% | 15.7% |
TV | -41.3% | -15.1% | -2.4% | -4.7% | -14.5% | 13.2% |
of which VOD | -24.8% | -5.1% | 10.3% | 5.7% | -1.2% | 21.1% |
Online classified* | -52.7% | -28.3% | -17.4% | -27.0% | -26.8% | 10.6% |
Direct mail | -48.0% | -28.0% | -12.0% | -12.0% | -26.2% | 3.5% |
Out of home | -70.4% | -27.7% | -3.1% | 3.1% | -25.4% | 34.7% |
of which digital | -68.3% | -24.0% | -0.6% | 5.3% | -20.9% | 38.7% |
National newsbrands | -46.0% | -24.1% | -11.6% | -8.1% | -21.2% | 12.5% |
of which online | -40.2% | -17.5% | -4.2% | -6.1% | -11.4% | 17.0% |
Regional newsbrands | -52.4% | -28.1% | -14.1% | -12.3% | -27.5% | 12.6% |
of which online | -50.5% | -23.6% | -6.4% | -9.9% | -21.0% | 19.7% |
Magazine brands | -46.2% | -28.1% | -9.7% | -8.2% | -24.2% | 15.4% |
of which online | -45.1% | -25.3% | -4.0% | 3.7% | -23.3% | 21.1% |
Radio | -48.7% | -20.4% | -10.6% | -7.0% | -21.0% | 16.9% |
of which online | -47.1% | -14.1% | -6.8% | -0.1% | -18.4% | 23.1% |
Cinema | -100.0% | -61.4% | -9.1% | 16.6% | -44.2% | 79.6% |
TOTAL UK ADSPEND | -39.0% | -20.7% | -6.7% | -4.4% | -15.6% | 16.6% |
Note: Broadcaster VOD, digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio station websites are also included within online display and classified totals, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Online radio is display advertising on broadcasters’ websites. Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, July 2020 |